Recent answers

What’s the presidential baseline for MO-HD-155?

A single Missouri state house district's presidential baseline — what the cycle-by-cycle margin shows about the district as currently…

State House District 155 voted D+14.6 in 2024, running 16.3 points to the left of Pennsylvania's R+1.

Which counties vote most like Stevens?

Stevens County's archetype — rural eastern Washington — named through its closest peer counties across the country.

The Stevens County peer-set query returned empty across every lens: no margin, no peer counties, no demographic…

What’s the presidential baseline for IL-HD-62?

A specific Illinois state legislative district profiled by its presidential vote history relative to Illinois and the nation.

House District 62 voted R+40.5 in 2024, a 39.1-point gap to the national R+1.4 that's been opened almost entirely by a…

Allegheny County, PA

Pittsburgh-anchored urban county in a battleground state with a specific cycle-by-cycle arc.

Allegheny County voted D+20.3 in 2024, running 22.0 points to the left of Pennsylvania's R+1.

Compare Gore, Kerry, Clinton, and Harris coalitions

Four Democratic presidential coalitions across 24 years, county-by-county, with era-matched demographic controls — what overlaps, what…

Tell me about Allegheny County, PA

Pittsburgh-anchored urban county in a battleground state with a specific cycle-by-cycle arc.

Allegheny County voted D+20.3 in 2024 while Pennsylvania ran R+1.7 — a 22.0-point gap between the county and the state…

Which counties are most similar to Luzerne County, PA?

Luzerne's archetype — a former Obama stronghold turned Republican-leaning northeastern Pennsylvania county — characterized through its close

Luzerne County's peer set could not be resolved in this run — the comparison list returned empty, and the underlying…

15-minute drive from downtown Pittsburgh

The Golden Triangle's 15-minute commute-shed as a political unit within Allegheny County and Pennsylvania.

Counties most like Cuyahoga County, OH

Cuyahoga's archetype — Cleveland-anchored urban county, historically Democratic, mixed-race industrial Midwest — named via its peers across

Counties similar to Allegheny County, PA

Allegheny's archetype — Pittsburgh-anchored urban county in a battleground state — named via its closest peers.

15-minute drive from downtown Philadelphia

Center City's 15-minute drive-time ring as a political unit — the dense urban core that the freeway grid stitches together.

Where is Pennsylvania trending?

Pennsylvania's five-cycle partisan trajectory and what 2024 says about the direction.

Pennsylvania has moved 12.0 points right since 2008, closing 2024 at R+1.7 after Obama carried it by D+10.

Places like Macomb County, Michigan

Macomb's archetype — exurban Detroit, predominantly non-Hispanic white, Obama-to-Trump trajectory — named via its closest peers.

The Macomb County peer query returned no matched counties, no demographic payload, and no historical trend cycles —…

Philadelphia

Philadelphia as a high-population urban county in a battleground state — its specific cycle-by-cycle arc within Pennsylvania's larger trajec

The state of Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania as a perennial battleground — the 2024 result placed inside the longer trajectory and contrasted against national movement.

Allegheny County, PA

Allegheny stayed blue but tightened in 2024.

Allegheny County voted D+20.3 in 2024, essentially unchanged from D+20.4 in 2020 and matched by a lean score of D+19.