Providence-New Bedford
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 8.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.7M residents — 6 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 70.5% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 15.1% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 5.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.2% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.6% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 37.8% | 78.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 4.0% | 8.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.2% | 6.7% |
| Other | 2.3% | 4.9% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Black Protestant | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 52.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+9.2 |
| 2020 | Biden+17.6 |
| 2016 | Clinton+13.3 |
| 2012 | Obama+25.0 |
| 2008 | Obama+26.2 |
| 2004 | Kerry+23.3 |
| 2000 | Gore+31.0 |
| 1996 | Clinton+35.5 |
| 1992 | Clinton+19.8 |
Providence-New Bedford is a media market that has a population of 1,684,071. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+9.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53.4% | 44.1% | D+9.2 | R+8.3 |
| 2020 | 57.8% | 40.2% | D+17.6 | D+4.3 |
| 2016 | 53.0% | 39.7% | D+13.3 | R+11.7 |
| 2012 | 61.6% | 36.6% | D+25.0 | R+1.2 |
| 2008 | 62.0% | 35.8% | D+26.2 | D+2.9 |
| 2004 | 60.8% | 37.5% | D+23.3 | R+7.7 |
| 2000 | 62.2% | 31.2% | D+31.0 | R+4.5 |
| 1996 | 61.3% | 25.8% | D+35.5 | D+15.7 |
| 1992 | 47.5% | 27.7% | D+19.8 | D+7.9 |
| 1988 | 55.7% | 43.7% | D+11.9 | D+14.3 |
| 1984 | 48.6% | 51.0% | R+2.4 | R+10.6 |
| 1980 | 46.6% | 38.4% | D+8.2 | R+7.2 |
| 1976 | 57.1% | 41.7% | D+15.4 | D+16.5 |
| 1972 | 49.3% | 50.4% | R+1.2 | R+34.0 |
| 1968 | 64.4% | 31.5% | D+32.9 | R+27.5 |
| 1964 | 80.2% | 19.7% | D+60.4 | D+31.1 |
| 1960 | 64.7% | 35.3% | D+29.4 | D+45.7 |
| 1956 | 41.8% | 58.1% | R+16.3 | R+14.3 |
| 1952 | 48.9% | 51.0% | R+2.0 | R+21.3 |
| 1948 | 59.1% | 39.8% | D+19.3 | — |
What defines Providence-New Bedford?
It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Boston (Manchester)
Educated rural democratic
Springfield-Holyoke
Educated rural competitive
Chicago
Educated rural democratic
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Educated rural democratic
New York
Educated rural democratic
Austin
Educated rural democratic
San Diego
Educated rural democratic
Albany-Schenectady-Troy
Educated rural competitive
Counties in Providence-New Bedford
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | 665K | D+14.0 | 150,102 | 112,443 | 269,679 | 34.1% |
| Bristol | 582K | D+1.3 | 137,786 | 134,196 | 278,017 | 35.2% |
| Kent | 171K | D+1.9 | 46,269 | 44,526 | 93,148 | 11.8% |
| Washington | 130K | D+14.9 | 42,589 | 31,247 | 76,036 | 9.6% |
| Newport | 85K | D+25.3 | 27,332 | 16,027 | 44,618 | 5.6% |
| Bristol | 50K | D+26.1 | 17,458 | 10,048 | 28,335 | 3.6% |
6 countiesTotal votes: 789,833
Ask the Historian
Explore Providence-New Bedford's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Swung 8.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 70.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 15.1% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.6% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 5.2% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.2% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
48.0%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +65.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.8% | 78.6% | — | — | |
| 4.0% | 8.4% | — | — | |
| 3.2% | 6.7% | — | — | |
| 2.3% | 4.9% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 1.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.5% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 52.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Providence-New Bedford media market? 1,684,071 residents across 6 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.7M
Share of U.S. population
0.50%
Voting-age population
77.1%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$87,412
Poverty rate
11.2%
College degree
35.3%
Homeownership
63.2%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.8 yrs
Age 18–29
16.0%
Age 65+
18.4%
Foreign born
14.7%
Non-English at home
22.6%
English only
77.4%
Turnout in Providence-New Bedford
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
60.8%
-0.5pp
1,298,927
1988–2024
How competitive is Providence-New Bedford?
Likely DAvg margin: D+13.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+26.2
2012
D+25.0
2016
D+13.3
2020
D+17.6
2024
D+9.2
17.0pp
0
D+18.3
Do voters in Providence-New Bedford split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+9.2 | D+12.5 | 3.3pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 19.8pp
Located In
Providence-New Bedford sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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