San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 7.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 7.3M residents — 10 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 35.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 24.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 5.1% |
▶Asian(6) | 28.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.0% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.5% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.7% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 23.4% | 56.7% |
| Other | 7.8% | 18.9% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 6.2% | 15.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.0% | 4.8% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 3.6% |
| Black Protestant | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Non-religious | 58.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+47.6 |
| 2020 | Biden+55.0 |
| 2016 | Clinton+55.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+49.4 |
| 2008 | Obama+50.1 |
| 2004 | Kerry+40.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+34.5 |
| 1996 | Clinton+32.4 |
| 1992 | Clinton+31.6 |
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose is a media market that has a population of 7,325,381. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+47.6. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 71.9% | 24.3% | D+47.6 | R+7.4 |
| 2020 | 76.5% | 21.4% | D+55.0 | R+0.8 |
| 2016 | 74.3% | 18.5% | D+55.8 | D+6.4 |
| 2012 | 73.2% | 23.7% | D+49.4 | R+0.7 |
| 2008 | 74.0% | 23.8% | D+50.1 | D+9.3 |
| 2004 | 69.7% | 28.8% | D+40.9 | D+6.4 |
| 2000 | 64.2% | 29.7% | D+34.5 | D+2.1 |
| 1996 | 60.5% | 28.0% | D+32.4 | D+0.8 |
| 1992 | 56.4% | 24.8% | D+31.6 | D+14.2 |
| 1988 | 58.0% | 40.6% | D+17.4 | D+14.1 |
| 1984 | 51.0% | 47.7% | D+3.3 | D+6.9 |
| 1980 | 40.7% | 44.3% | R+3.6 | R+7.4 |
| 1976 | 49.7% | 45.9% | D+3.8 | D+4.5 |
| 1972 | 48.3% | 49.0% | R+0.7 | R+9.6 |
| 1968 | 50.6% | 41.6% | D+8.9 | R+22.3 |
| 1964 | 65.6% | 34.3% | D+31.3 | D+27.4 |
| 1960 | 51.7% | 47.9% | D+3.8 | D+14.3 |
| 1956 | 44.6% | 55.0% | R+10.4 | D+1.0 |
| 1952 | 43.9% | 55.3% | R+11.4 | R+9.8 |
| 1948 | 46.5% | 48.0% | R+1.6 | — |
What defines San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose?
It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Counties in San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.9M | D+40.0 | 510,744 | 210,924 | 750,433 | 23.4% |
| Alameda | 1.6M | D+53.5 | 499,551 | 140,789 | 669,907 | 20.9% |
| Contra Costa | 1.2M | D+38.0 | 356,008 | 155,308 | 528,904 | 16.5% |
| San Francisco | 830K | D+64.8 | 323,719 | 62,594 | 402,964 | 12.6% |
| San Mateo | 742K | D+50.3 | 242,957 | 76,616 | 330,510 | 10.3% |
| Sonoma | 485K | D+46.2 | 179,600 | 63,426 | 251,426 | 7.8% |
| Marin | 258K | D+63.9 | 116,152 | 24,054 | 144,113 | 4.5% |
| Napa | 135K | D+34.9 | 43,212 | 20,357 | 65,549 | 2.0% |
| Mendocino | 90K | D+26.8 | 24,049 | 13,528 | 39,216 | 1.2% |
| Lake | 68K | R+1.4 | 12,794 | 13,161 | 26,759 | 0.8% |
10 countiesTotal votes: 3,209,781
Ask the Historian
Explore San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 47.6% margin
- Margins have been narrowing — from 55.8pp to 47.6pp over the last 3 presidential elections
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 35.4% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 28.8% | 6.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 24.4% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 5.1% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.7% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
41.3%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +37.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.4% | 56.7% | — | — | |
| 7.8% | 18.9% | — | — | |
| 6.2% | 15.1% | — | — | |
| 2.0% | 4.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 3.6% | — | — |
| 1.2% | 3.0% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 58.7% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose media market? 7,325,381 residents across 10 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
52% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 19pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
7.3M
Share of U.S. population
2.19%
Voting-age population
78.4%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$139,195
Poverty rate
8.6%
College degree
51.8%
Homeownership
56.3%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.0 yrs
Age 18–29
14.8%
Age 65+
17.0%
Foreign born
32.8%
Non-English at home
44.2%
English only
55.8%
Turnout in San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
55.9%
-6.6pp
5,743,509
1988–2024
How competitive is San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose?
Safe DAvg margin: D+52.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+50.1
2012
D+49.4
2016
D+55.8
2020
D+55.0
2024
D+47.6
8.2pp
0
D+51.6
Do voters in San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+47.6 | D+45.8 | 1.8pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 17.4pp
Located In
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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