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New York

New York

Latest: 2024↓ R+12.6 vs 2020

Leans Democratic — shifted 12.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 21.9M residents — 29 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
44.6%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
25.1%
▶Black / African American(15)
15.3%
▶Asian(6)
11.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.6%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.6%
Multiracial / Other
3.1%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic32.7%60.7%
Other11.0%20.5%
Evangelical Protestant4.6%8.5%
Mainline Protestant3.2%6.0%
Black Protestant1.5%2.8%
Orthodox Christian0.8%1.5%
LDS (Mormon)0.3%0.6%
Non-religious46.2%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Harris+13.9
2020Biden+26.5
2016Clinton+26.9
2012Obama+29.1
2008Obama+27.4
2004Kerry+19.0
2000Gore+27.9
1996Clinton+29.0
1992Clinton+13.9
View full election history →

New York is a media market that has a population of 21,894,584. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+13.9. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.

New York Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202456.3%42.4%D+13.9R+12.6
202062.6%36.2%D+26.5R+0.4
201661.6%34.7%D+26.9R+2.3
201264.0%34.8%D+29.1D+1.7
200863.3%35.8%D+27.4D+8.4
200459.0%39.9%D+19.0R+8.9
200062.0%34.1%D+27.9R+1.1
199660.2%31.2%D+29.0D+15.1
199250.3%36.3%D+13.9D+14.8
198849.0%49.9%R+0.9D+9.2
198444.7%54.8%R+10.1R+2.3
198041.6%49.4%R+7.8R+13.7
197652.4%46.5%D+5.9D+23.3
197240.9%58.3%R+17.4R+18.3
196844.9%44.0%D+1.0R+33.5
196467.1%32.6%D+34.4D+27.0
196053.5%46.0%D+7.5D+27.5
195639.8%59.8%R+20.0R+6.8
195240.0%53.2%R+13.2R+10.6
194842.1%44.6%R+2.5—
Political Identity

What defines New York?

It has a heavily immigrant community where nativity and ethnic networks shape the political landscape.

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in New York

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Kings2.6M
D+43.3
601,265233,964847,9349.4%
Queens2.3M
D+24.2
437,282264,628712,1917.9%
New York1.6M
D+64.2
533,782113,921654,3727.2%
Suffolk1.5M
R+9.9
341,812417,549762,8498.4%
Bronx1.4M
D+45.0
261,67098,174362,8904.0%
Nassau1.4M
R+4.2
338,424368,117712,2997.9%
Westchester1000K
D+26.1
287,434167,795457,8385.1%
Bergen962K
D+3.4
232,660217,096459,0775.1%
Fairfield957K
D+19.6
267,019178,263452,3035.0%
Middlesex871K
D+8.0
191,802162,459365,1874.0%
Essex863K
D+44.9
224,59683,908313,2833.5%
Hudson718K
D+28.1
144,76579,913231,1812.6%
Ocean654K
R+36.0
105,789227,232337,1353.7%
Monmouth645K
R+11.4
156,382197,409360,1434.0%
Union579K
D+24.2
147,32789,063240,6322.7%
Passaic521K
R+2.9
95,156100,954202,7672.2%
Morris515K
R+2.7
135,672143,439284,6663.1%
Richmond495K
R+29.5
69,345128,151199,6202.2%
Orange407K
R+8.4
80,25394,936175,6601.9%
Somerset350K
D+13.9
98,79074,101177,4122.0%
Rockland342K
R+11.8
65,88083,543150,0721.7%
Dutchess298K
D+5.4
79,99471,778152,6591.7%
Ulster183K
D+18.5
57,97439,74398,5341.1%
Sussex146K
R+24.9
31,01952,12384,6290.9%
Hunterdon130K
R+6.7
36,99542,39180,9250.9%
Warren111K
R+20.7
23,31835,77260,1500.7%
Putnam98K
R+13.6
23,95631,55355,7650.6%
Sullivan80K
R+16.6
14,54920,38635,0620.4%
Pike61K
R+24.1
13,13221,53734,9500.4%
29 countiesTotal votes: 9,062,185
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore New York's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
  • Swung 12.6 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
  • Shifted 15.3 points toward Republicans over the last 4 elections
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
New YorkCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 44.6%Hispanic 25.1%Black 15.3%Asian 11.2%Multiracial 3.1%Native American 0.6%
GroupNew YorkNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
44.6%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
25.1%19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)
15.3%12.2%
▶Asian(6)
11.2%6.0%
Multiracial / Other
3.1%4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.6%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)
0.6%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
53.8%(11.8M people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +47.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
32.7%60.7%——
Other
11.0%20.5%——
Evangelical Protestant
4.6%8.5%——
Mainline Protestant
3.2%6.0%——
Black Protestant
1.5%2.8%——
Orthodox Christian
0.8%1.5%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.3%0.6%——
Non-religiousPopulation
46.2%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the New York media market? 21,894,584 residents across 29 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
New York vs National21.9M residents

44% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
21.9M
local
21.9MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
6.54%
local
6.54%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
76.7%
local
76.7%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$102,457
local
$102,457National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.4%
local
12.4%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
43.8%
local
43.8%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
53.1%
local
53.1%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.8 yrs
local
39.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.6%
local
14.6%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
16.3%
local
16.3%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
28.8%
local
28.8%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.2%
local
39.2%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
60.8%
local
60.8%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in New York

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
53.9%
vs Previous
-3.0pp
Voting-Age Pop
16,803,487
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is New York?

Safe DAvg margin: D+22.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+27.4
2012
D+29.1
2016
D+26.9
2020
D+26.5
2024
D+13.9
Elasticity
15.3pp
margin range
Party Flips
0
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+24.8
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in New York split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (19/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateD+13.9D+18.95.0pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.5pp
Containing Geography

Located In

New York sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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