San Diego
Safe Democratic — shifted 6.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 3.3M residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 42.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 34.6% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 4.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 12.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 2.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7) | 0.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 22.9% | 55.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.5% | 22.8% |
| Other | 6.6% | 15.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 2.1% | 5.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.5% | 3.7% |
| Black Protestant | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| Non-religious | 58.5% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+16.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+22.8 |
| 2016 | Clinton+19.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+7.6 |
| 2008 | Obama+10.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+6.1 |
| 2000 | Bush+4.0 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.5 |
| 1992 | Clinton+1.5 |
San Diego is a media market that has a population of 3,288,774. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+16.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 56.9% | 40.1% | D+16.8 | R+6.0 |
| 2020 | 60.2% | 37.5% | D+22.8 | D+3.1 |
| 2016 | 56.1% | 36.4% | D+19.6 | D+12.1 |
| 2012 | 52.5% | 45.0% | D+7.6 | R+2.6 |
| 2008 | 54.0% | 43.8% | D+10.2 | D+16.3 |
| 2004 | 46.3% | 52.5% | R+6.1 | R+2.2 |
| 2000 | 45.7% | 49.6% | R+4.0 | R+2.5 |
| 1996 | 44.1% | 45.6% | R+1.5 | R+3.0 |
| 1992 | 37.2% | 35.7% | D+1.5 | D+23.4 |
| 1988 | 38.3% | 60.2% | R+21.8 | D+10.0 |
| 1984 | 33.4% | 65.3% | R+31.9 | D+1.7 |
| 1980 | 27.3% | 60.8% | R+33.5 | R+19.4 |
| 1976 | 41.6% | 55.7% | R+14.1 | D+13.3 |
| 1972 | 34.3% | 61.8% | R+27.5 | R+7.3 |
| 1968 | 36.1% | 56.3% | R+20.2 | R+19.6 |
| 1964 | 49.7% | 50.3% | R+0.6 | D+12.5 |
| 1960 | 43.3% | 56.4% | R+13.1 | D+16.2 |
| 1956 | 35.2% | 64.5% | R+29.3 | R+3.0 |
| 1952 | 36.5% | 62.9% | R+26.3 | R+24.7 |
| 1948 | 47.8% | 49.4% | R+1.6 | — |
What defines San Diego?
San Diego has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (5D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a heavily immigrant community where nativity and ethnic networks shape the political landscape.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Counties in San Diego
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 3.3M | D+16.8 | 841,372 | 593,270 | 1,477,786 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2004
- College attainment is 43% — 10pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally
Who Lives Here
| Group | San Diego | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 42.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 34.6% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 12.4% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 4.7% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 2.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7) | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +27.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.9% | 55.2% | — | — | |
| 9.5% | 22.8% | — | — | |
| 6.6% | 15.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 2.1% | 5.0% | — | — |
| 1.5% | 3.7% | — | — | |
| 0.6% | 1.4% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 1.0% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 58.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the San Diego media market? 3,288,774 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
43% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in San Diego
How competitive is San Diego?
Do voters in San Diego split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+16.8 | D+13.4 | 3.4pp |