Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Latest: 2024
Leans Democratic — shifted 4.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.2M residents — 3 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 49.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 38.1% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 3.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.7% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 2.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 20.9% | 51.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 10.3% | 25.2% |
| Other | 6.6% | 16.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 3.3% | 8.2% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.2% | 5.5% |
| Black Protestant | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 59.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+11.4 |
| 2020 | Biden+15.4 |
| 2016 | Clinton+11.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+4.7 |
| 2008 | Obama+3.9 |
| 2004 | Kerry+3.6 |
| 2000 | Gore+6.1 |
| 1996 | Clinton+11.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.1 |
Tucson (Sierra Vista) is a media market that has a population of 1,234,982. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+11.4. Akashic Edge tracks 29 presidential elections here, dating back to 1912.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 54.9% | 43.5% | D+11.4 | R+4.0 |
| 2020 | 56.9% | 41.5% | D+15.4 | D+4.2 |
| 2016 | 52.0% | 40.9% | D+11.1 | D+6.5 |
| 2012 | 51.4% | 46.7% | D+4.7 | D+0.7 |
| 2008 | 51.1% | 47.2% | D+3.9 | D+0.3 |
| 2004 | 51.3% | 47.7% | D+3.6 | R+2.5 |
| 2000 | 50.4% | 44.3% | D+6.1 | R+5.8 |
| 1996 | 51.5% | 39.6% | D+11.9 | D+1.8 |
| 1992 | 44.9% | 34.8% | D+10.1 | D+13.1 |
| 1988 | 47.9% | 50.9% | R+3.0 | D+13.1 |
| 1984 | 41.4% | 57.6% | R+16.1 | D+0.4 |
| 1980 | 34.2% | 50.8% | R+16.5 | R+12.8 |
| 1976 | 46.1% | 49.8% | R+3.7 | D+8.7 |
| 1972 | 34.9% | 47.4% | R+12.5 | R+3.3 |
| 1968 | 40.6% | 49.8% | R+9.2 | R+16.6 |
| 1964 | 53.6% | 46.2% | D+7.4 | D+11.3 |
| 1960 | 48.0% | 51.8% | R+3.8 | D+19.1 |
| 1956 | 38.5% | 61.4% | R+22.9 | R+5.3 |
| 1952 | 41.2% | 58.8% | R+17.6 | R+24.7 |
| 1948 | 52.2% | 45.1% | D+7.1 | — |
What defines Tucson (Sierra Vista)?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the suburban swing demographic that decides close elections.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb
Educated rural democratic
Springfield-Holyoke
Educated rural competitive
Eureka
Educated rural competitive
Monterey-Salinas
Educated rural democratic
San Diego
Educated rural democratic
Phoenix (Prescott)
Educated rural competitive
Eugene
Educated rural competitive
Los Angeles
Educated rural democratic
Counties in Tucson (Sierra Vista)
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pima | 1.1M | D+15.1 | 292,450 | 214,669 | 515,287 | 86.8% |
| Cochise | 126K | R+23.1 | 22,296 | 35,936 | 59,135 | 10.0% |
| Santa Cruz | 49K | D+18.6 | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | 3.2% |
3 countiesTotal votes: 593,589
Ask the Historian
Explore Tucson (Sierra Vista)'s political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Closest recent contest: 2008 at just 3.9 points
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 49.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 38.1% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 3.5% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.4% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.9% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 2.6% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(4) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
40.8%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +21.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.9% | 51.3% | — | — | |
| 10.3% | 25.2% | — | — | |
| 6.6% | 16.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 3.3% | 8.2% | — | — |
| 2.2% | 5.5% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.6% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 59.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Tucson (Sierra Vista) media market? 1,234,982 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.2M
Share of U.S. population
0.37%
Voting-age population
77.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$68,743
Poverty rate
14.7%
College degree
35.4%
Homeownership
66.0%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.1 yrs
Age 18–29
17.7%
Age 65+
21.8%
Foreign born
12.6%
Non-English at home
27.9%
English only
72.1%
Turnout in Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
62.2%
-0.8pp
954,106
1988–2024
How competitive is Tucson (Sierra Vista)?
Likely DAvg margin: D+12.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+3.9
2012
D+4.7
2016
D+11.1
2020
D+15.4
2024
D+11.4
11.4pp
0
D+9.3
Do voters in Tucson (Sierra Vista) split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+11.4 | D+17.4 | 6.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 22.0pp
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