Monterey-Salinas
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 9.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 770K residents — 3 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 36.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 52.6% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 1.1% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 40.8% | 75.5% |
| Other | 6.4% | 11.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 5.0% | 9.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.6% | 2.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 45.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+39.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+48.0 |
| 2016 | Clinton+46.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+44.2 |
| 2008 | Obama+46.0 |
| 2004 | Kerry+32.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+25.9 |
| 1996 | Clinton+22.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+25.0 |
Monterey-Salinas is a media market that has a population of 769,829. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+39.0. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 67.8% | 28.8% | D+39.0 | R+9.0 |
| 2020 | 72.8% | 24.8% | D+48.0 | D+1.9 |
| 2016 | 68.9% | 22.8% | D+46.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2012 | 70.3% | 26.2% | D+44.2 | R+1.8 |
| 2008 | 71.8% | 25.8% | D+46.0 | D+13.1 |
| 2004 | 65.6% | 32.7% | D+32.9 | D+6.9 |
| 2000 | 59.1% | 33.1% | D+25.9 | D+3.8 |
| 1996 | 54.5% | 32.3% | D+22.2 | R+2.8 |
| 1992 | 51.9% | 26.9% | D+25.0 | D+14.1 |
| 1988 | 54.7% | 43.8% | D+11.0 | D+15.8 |
| 1984 | 46.9% | 51.8% | R+4.9 | D+8.8 |
| 1980 | 35.6% | 49.3% | R+13.7 | R+14.7 |
| 1976 | 48.3% | 47.4% | D+1.0 | D+12.5 |
| 1972 | 42.4% | 53.9% | R+11.5 | R+3.0 |
| 1968 | 41.8% | 50.3% | R+8.5 | R+29.6 |
| 1964 | 60.5% | 39.3% | D+21.2 | D+36.1 |
| 1960 | 42.3% | 57.3% | R+14.9 | D+7.5 |
| 1956 | 38.6% | 61.1% | R+22.5 | D+6.3 |
| 1952 | 35.2% | 64.0% | R+28.8 | R+17.0 |
| 1948 | 42.1% | 53.9% | R+11.8 | — |
What defines Monterey-Salinas?
It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
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Counties in Monterey-Salinas
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey | 438K | D+29.9 | 93,060 | 49,226 | 146,718 | 47.6% |
| Santa Cruz | 265K | D+54.4 | 100,998 | 27,978 | 134,135 | 43.5% |
| San Benito | 67K | D+12.6 | 15,179 | 11,702 | 27,649 | 9.0% |
3 countiesTotal votes: 308,502
Ask the Historian
Explore Monterey-Salinas's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 39.0% margin
- Turnout decreased by 5.2 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Monterey-Salinas | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 52.6% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 36.4% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.3% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.8% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 1.6% | 12.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.0% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
54.1%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +61.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.8% | 75.5% | — | — | |
| 6.4% | 11.8% | — | — | |
| 5.0% | 9.3% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.6% | 2.9% | — | — |
| 1.2% | 2.2% | — | — | |
| 0.5% | 0.8% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 45.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Monterey-Salinas media market? 769,829 residents across 3 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
770K
Share of U.S. population
0.23%
Voting-age population
72.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$104,016
Poverty rate
11.8%
College degree
33.3%
Homeownership
56.4%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.0 yrs
Age 18–29
17.7%
Age 65+
16.2%
Foreign born
24.8%
Non-English at home
47.3%
English only
52.7%
Turnout in Monterey-Salinas
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
55.3%
-5.2pp
557,849
1988–2024
How competitive is Monterey-Salinas?
Safe DAvg margin: D+44.4 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+46.0
2012
D+44.2
2016
D+46.1
2020
D+48.0
2024
D+39.0
9.0pp
0
D+44.7
Do voters in Monterey-Salinas split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+39.0 | D+37.0 | 2.0pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 19.6pp
Located In
Monterey-Salinas sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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