Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 5.0pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 382K residents — 4 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 75.3% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 9.7% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 7.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 13.2% | 35.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 10.7% | 28.7% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 8.6% | 23.0% |
| Other | 2.6% | 7.0% |
| Black Protestant | 1.9% | 5.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 2.1% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 62.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+3.1 |
| 2020 | Biden+1.9 |
| 2016 | Trump+0.1 |
| 2012 | Obama+14.9 |
| 2008 | Obama+17.2 |
| 2004 | Kerry+6.0 |
| 2000 | Gore+10.5 |
| 1996 | Clinton+15.7 |
| 1992 | Clinton+12.4 |
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL is a metro area that has a population of 381,503. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+3.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.5% | 50.6% | R+3.1 | R+5.0 |
| 2020 | 49.8% | 47.9% | D+1.9 | D+2.0 |
| 2016 | 45.9% | 46.1% | R+0.1 | R+15.0 |
| 2012 | 56.6% | 41.7% | D+14.9 | R+2.3 |
| 2008 | 57.9% | 40.7% | D+17.2 | D+11.2 |
| 2004 | 52.6% | 46.7% | D+6.0 | R+4.6 |
| 2000 | 54.1% | 43.6% | D+10.5 | R+5.2 |
| 1996 | 53.2% | 37.5% | D+15.7 | D+3.4 |
| 1992 | 48.0% | 35.6% | D+12.4 | D+2.1 |
| 1988 | 54.8% | 44.6% | D+10.3 | D+13.1 |
| 1984 | 48.3% | 51.1% | R+2.8 | D+9.5 |
| 1980 | 39.2% | 51.5% | R+12.3 | R+8.2 |
| 1976 | 47.1% | 51.3% | R+4.1 | D+10.5 |
| 1972 | 42.1% | 56.8% | R+14.7 | R+12.8 |
| 1968 | 45.2% | 47.0% | R+1.8 | R+23.3 |
| 1964 | 60.7% | 39.3% | D+21.4 | D+27.6 |
| 1960 | 46.8% | 53.0% | R+6.2 | D+9.2 |
| 1956 | 42.2% | 57.6% | R+15.4 | D+4.5 |
| 1952 | 39.8% | 59.7% | R+19.9 | R+16.4 |
| 1948 | 47.7% | 51.2% | R+3.5 | — |
What defines Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL?
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
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Counties in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott | 175K | R+3.9 | 42,479 | 45,976 | 90,133 | 48.2% |
| Rock Island | 143K | D+9.6 | 34,126 | 28,061 | 63,458 | 33.9% |
| Henry | 49K | R+24.4 | 9,226 | 15,359 | 25,092 | 13.4% |
| Mercer | 15K | R+27.1 | 2,950 | 5,215 | 8,346 | 4.5% |
4 countiesTotal votes: 187,029
Ask the Historian
Explore Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 20.3 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 75.3% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 9.7% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 7.7% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.5% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.4% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
37.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +8.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.2% | 35.6% | — | — | |
| 10.7% | 28.7% | — | — | |
| 8.6% | 23.0% | — | — | |
| 2.6% | 7.0% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 5.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 2.1% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 62.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metro area? 381,503 residents across 4 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
382K
Share of U.S. population
0.11%
Voting-age population
74.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$73,068
Poverty rate
12.6%
College degree
30.0%
Homeownership
71.7%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
40.5 yrs
Age 18–29
14.2%
Age 65+
19.3%
Foreign born
5.7%
Non-English at home
9.0%
English only
91.0%
Turnout in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
65.4%
-2.5pp
285,841
1988–2024
How competitive is Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL?
TossupAvg margin: R+0.5 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+17.2
2012
D+14.9
2016
R+0.1
2020
D+1.9
2024
R+3.1
20.3pp
3
D+6.1
Do voters in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Moderate splitting (61/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+1.6 | R+7.0 | 5.4pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 8.3pp
Located In
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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