McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
Competitive — shifted 19.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 892K residents — 1 counties
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 6.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 91.9% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 0.7% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.4% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 45.5% | 75.8% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 9.8% | 16.3% |
| Other | 3.5% | 5.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| Non-religious | 40.0% | — |
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+2.9 |
| 2020 | Biden+17.1 |
| 2016 | Clinton+40.2 |
| 2012 | Obama+41.7 |
| 2008 | Obama+38.6 |
| 2004 | Kerry+10.1 |
| 2000 | Gore+22.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+37.6 |
| 1992 | Clinton+27.5 |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX is a metro area that has a population of 891,977. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+2.9. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 48.1% | 51.0% | R+2.9 | R+19.9 |
| 2020 | 58.0% | 41.0% | D+17.1 | R+23.2 |
| 2016 | 68.1% | 27.9% | D+40.2 | R+1.5 |
| 2012 | 70.3% | 28.6% | D+41.7 | D+3.1 |
| 2008 | 68.9% | 30.3% | D+38.6 | D+28.6 |
| 2004 | 54.9% | 44.8% | D+10.1 | R+12.8 |
| 2000 | 60.8% | 37.9% | D+22.8 | R+14.8 |
| 1996 | 66.5% | 28.8% | D+37.6 | D+10.2 |
| 1992 | 58.1% | 30.6% | D+27.5 | R+2.4 |
| 1988 | 64.8% | 34.9% | D+29.9 | D+18.5 |
| 1984 | 55.6% | 44.1% | D+11.4 | R+2.7 |
| 1980 | 56.0% | 41.8% | D+14.2 | R+14.8 |
| 1976 | 64.1% | 35.2% | D+29.0 | D+40.0 |
| 1972 | 44.3% | 55.2% | R+11.0 | R+26.1 |
| 1968 | 54.1% | 39.0% | D+15.2 | R+16.1 |
| 1964 | 65.5% | 34.3% | D+31.2 | D+15.7 |
| 1960 | 57.6% | 42.1% | D+15.5 | D+30.4 |
| 1956 | 42.0% | 56.9% | R+14.9 | D+9.7 |
| 1952 | 37.6% | 62.2% | R+24.6 | R+45.2 |
| 1948 | 59.5% | 38.8% | D+20.6 | — |
What defines McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX?
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX has been trending Republican — 45pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
Constituent Counties
Similar metro areas
Counties in McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidalgo | 892K | R+2.9 | 104,517 | 110,760 | 217,265 | 100.0% |
Ask the Historian
Key Insights
- Swung 19.9 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
Who Lives Here
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 91.9% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 6.0% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.0% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(7) | 0.7% | 12.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
Religious Adherents
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +55.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.5% | 75.8% | — | — | |
| 9.8% | 16.3% | — | — | |
| 3.5% | 5.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 1.9% | — | — |
| 1.1% | 1.8% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 40.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX metro area? 891,977 residents across 1 counties.
Demographics
21% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 12pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Turnout in McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
How competitive is McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX?
Do voters in McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX split their tickets?
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+2.9 | D+6.6 | 9.5pp |