Buffalo
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 4.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.6M residents — 10 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.7% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 9.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.5% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 36.1% | 63.0% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 7.9% | 13.7% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| Other | 4.3% | 7.5% |
| Black Protestant | 2.8% | 4.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Non-religious | 42.8% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+5.8 |
| 2020 | Trump+1.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+8.0 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.3 |
| 2008 | Obama+7.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+3.4 |
| 2000 | Gore+7.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+15.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+7.1 |
Buffalo is a media market that has a population of 1,603,431. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+5.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.8% | 52.6% | R+5.8 | R+4.6 |
| 2020 | 48.4% | 49.7% | R+1.2 | D+6.8 |
| 2016 | 43.4% | 51.4% | R+8.0 | R+13.3 |
| 2012 | 51.7% | 46.4% | D+5.3 | R+2.0 |
| 2008 | 52.8% | 45.5% | D+7.3 | D+3.9 |
| 2004 | 50.7% | 47.3% | D+3.4 | R+4.4 |
| 2000 | 51.3% | 43.4% | D+7.8 | R+7.3 |
| 1996 | 50.6% | 35.4% | D+15.1 | D+8.0 |
| 1992 | 39.3% | 32.2% | D+7.1 | D+5.1 |
| 1988 | 50.6% | 48.6% | D+2.0 | D+10.8 |
| 1984 | 45.5% | 54.3% | R+8.8 | R+11.7 |
| 1980 | 47.2% | 44.3% | D+2.9 | D+6.5 |
| 1976 | 47.9% | 51.5% | R+3.6 | D+11.7 |
| 1972 | 42.2% | 57.5% | R+15.3 | R+21.6 |
| 1968 | 48.8% | 42.5% | D+6.4 | R+34.7 |
| 1964 | 70.5% | 29.4% | D+41.1 | D+38.8 |
| 1960 | 51.1% | 48.8% | D+2.3 | D+35.7 |
| 1956 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.4 | R+10.4 |
| 1952 | 37.6% | 60.5% | R+23.0 | R+17.7 |
| 1948 | 45.6% | 50.9% | R+5.2 | — |
What defines Buffalo?
Buffalo has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Albany-Schenectady-Troy
Educated rural competitive
Burlington-Plattsburgh
Educated rural competitive
Portland-Auburn
Small-town rural republican 2
Rochester, NY
Educated rural competitive
Pittsburgh
Small-town rural republican 3
Salisbury
Small-town rural republican 2
Bend, OR
Small-town rural republican 2
Duluth-Superior
Small-town rural republican 2
Counties in Buffalo
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie | 951K | D+9.6 | 248,651 | 204,774 | 456,550 | 59.8% |
| Niagara | 211K | R+14.9 | 43,438 | 58,678 | 102,431 | 13.4% |
| Chautauqua | 126K | R+21.9 | 22,085 | 34,528 | 56,751 | 7.4% |
| Cattaraugus | 76K | R+32.7 | 11,424 | 22,586 | 34,107 | 4.5% |
| Genesee | 58K | R+33.9 | 9,367 | 18,997 | 28,444 | 3.7% |
| Allegany | 47K | R+43.1 | 5,483 | 13,826 | 19,376 | 2.5% |
| McKean | 40K | R+47.2 | 5,115 | 14,401 | 19,682 | 2.6% |
| Wyoming | 40K | R+48.2 | 4,929 | 14,112 | 19,041 | 2.5% |
| Orleans | 40K | R+40.4 | 5,366 | 12,659 | 18,071 | 2.4% |
| Potter | 16K | R+62.3 | 1,675 | 7,334 | 9,085 | 1.2% |
10 countiesTotal votes: 763,538
Ask the Historian
Explore Buffalo's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2020 election was decided by just 1.2 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Swung 4.6 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Buffalo | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 9.0% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.7% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 3.3% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
57.2%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +44.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.1% | 63.0% | — | — | |
| 7.9% | 13.7% | — | — | |
| 5.9% | 10.3% | — | — | |
| 4.3% | 7.5% | — | — | |
| 2.8% | 4.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 0.9% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 42.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Buffalo media market? 1,603,431 residents across 10 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.6M
Share of U.S. population
0.48%
Voting-age population
76.5%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$69,791
Poverty rate
14.2%
College degree
32.4%
Homeownership
68.8%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
41.4 yrs
Age 18–29
15.1%
Age 65+
19.9%
Foreign born
5.7%
Non-English at home
9.1%
English only
90.9%
Turnout in Buffalo
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
62.2%
-1.9pp
1,227,412
1988–2024
How competitive is Buffalo?
Lean RAvg margin: R+5.0 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+7.3
2012
D+5.3
2016
R+8.0
2020
R+1.2
2024
R+5.8
15.3pp
1
R+0.5
Do voters in Buffalo split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+5.8 | R+0.6 | 5.3pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 18.3pp
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