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Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

Latest: 2024↓ R+7.7 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 7.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 5.3M residents — 10 counties

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Race & ancestry
Group%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
60.7%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
21.3%
▶Black / African American(16)
10.8%
▶Asian(6)
3.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%
Multiracial / Other
3.6%
View full demographics →
Religious adherence
Tradition% Pop% Adherents
Catholic19.3%42.9%
Evangelical Protestant16.8%37.4%
Mainline Protestant3.5%7.7%
Other3.2%7.2%
Black Protestant1.7%3.7%
LDS (Mormon)0.6%1.2%
Orthodox Christian0.5%1.1%
Non-religious54.9%—
View full religion →
Presidential results
YearResult
2024Trump+15.8
2020Trump+8.1
2016Trump+8.5
2012Romney+1.9
2008Obama+0.8
2004Bush+8.2
2000Bush+2.5
1996Clinton+4.1
1992Bush+3.4
View full election history →

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) is a media market that has a population of 5,278,573. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+15.8. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) Presidential Election Results, 1948–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202441.6%57.4%R+15.8R+7.7
202045.4%53.5%R+8.1D+0.4
201644.0%52.4%R+8.5R+6.5
201248.4%50.3%R+1.9R+2.7
200849.8%49.0%D+0.8D+9.0
200445.4%53.7%R+8.2R+5.7
200047.3%49.8%R+2.5R+6.6
199646.6%42.5%D+4.1D+7.5
199236.8%40.2%R+3.4D+18.7
198838.7%60.7%R+22.1D+11.7
198433.1%66.9%R+33.8R+16.2
198038.6%56.2%R+17.6R+17.1
197649.1%49.6%R+0.5D+45.8
197226.8%73.0%R+46.3R+29.5
196828.7%45.4%R+16.7R+20.9
196452.1%47.9%D+4.2D+18.9
196042.6%57.4%R+14.7D+10.4
195637.4%62.5%R+25.1R+4.6
195239.7%60.3%R+20.5R+22.0
194843.2%41.8%D+1.4—
Political Identity

What defines Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)?

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a moderately diverse, middle-class electorate where education levels and suburban growth shape the partisan balance.

Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Hillsborough1.5M
R+3.1
321,455342,017671,99325.5%
Pinellas963K
R+5.2
242,452269,472517,07419.6%
Polk791K
R+20.7
136,879209,044348,93113.3%
Pasco611K
R+25.2
117,450197,779318,47112.1%
Sarasota460K
R+18.2
112,668163,219277,86610.6%
Manatee430K
R+23.5
86,674140,486228,8608.7%
Hernando207K
R+37.0
34,43175,446110,6914.2%
Citrus162K
R+45.9
26,27671,35698,2373.7%
Highlands106K
R+40.8
15,22736,38251,9052.0%
Hardee26K
R+56.3
1,7516,3368,1430.3%
10 countiesTotal votes: 2,632,171
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)'s political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • The 2008 election was decided by just 0.8 points — razor-thin
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
  • Swung 7.7 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 60.7%Hispanic 21.3%Black 10.8%Multiracial 3.6%Asian 3.2%Native American 0.4%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
60.7%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
21.3%19.3%
▶Black / African American(16)
10.8%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
3.6%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
3.2%6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
0.9%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)
0.1%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
45.1%(2.4M people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions
Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
19.3%42.9%——
Evangelical Protestant
16.8%37.4%——
Mainline Protestant
3.5%7.7%——
Other
3.2%7.2%——
Black Protestant
1.7%3.7%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.6%1.2%——
Orthodox Christian
0.5%1.1%——
Non-religiousPopulation
54.9%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) media market? 5,278,573 residents across 10 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) vs National5.3M residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
5.3M
local
5.3MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
1.58%
local
1.58%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
79.2%
local
79.2%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$73,710
local
$73,710National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.1%
local
12.1%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
33.0%
local
33.0%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
70.5%
local
70.5%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
44.7 yrs
local
44.7 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
13.4%
local
13.4%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
23.2%
local
23.2%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.3%
local
14.3%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
22.3%
local
22.3%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
77.7%
local
77.7%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
62.9%
vs Previous
-0.9pp
Voting-Age Pop
4,182,206
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)?

Likely RAvg margin: R+10.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+0.8
2012
R+1.9
2016
R+8.5
2020
R+8.1
2024
R+15.8
Elasticity
16.6pp
margin range
Party Flips
3
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+6.7
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (45/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+15.8R+14.21.6pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 10.8pp
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