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Ottumwa-Kirksville

Ottumwa-Kirksville

Latest: 2024↓ R+6.3 vs 2020

Safe Republican — shifted 6.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 127K residents — 10 counties

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Presidential margin · 2008 → 2024

Full history

  • 2008

    R+1.6

    McCain

  • 2012

    R+8.2

    Romney

  • 2016

    R+32.3

    Trump

  • 2020

    R+34.4

    Trump

  • 2024

    R+40.7

    Trump

5 cycles · 2008 → 2024 · ↓ R+6.3 vs 2020

Who lives here

Full breakdown
  • White85.2%
  • Hispanic6.3%
  • Multiracial2.9%

Economy & age

Population
127K
Median age
39
Median income
$64K
−$20K vs U.S.
College+
25%
−10.7pp vs U.S.

Faith & language

Full detail
  • Evangelical25.8%
  • Mainline7.8%

88% English only12% Non-English

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Ottumwa-Kirksville

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Wapello35K
R+31.4
4,8969,47914,58325.5%
Adair25K
R+33.6
3,3346,77110,23917.9%
Jefferson16K
R+6.8
3,7884,3538,34614.6%
Macon15K
R+61.5
1,4816,3007,83913.7%
Davis9K
R+54.4
8783,0273,9546.9%
Van Buren7K
R+55.4
7782,7853,6256.3%
Sullivan6K
R+66.1
4082,0352,4634.3%
Scotland5K
R+61.5
3581,5371,9183.3%
Putnam5K
R+70.3
3472,0212,3804.2%
Schuyler4K
R+64.5
3341,5881,9453.4%
10 countiesTotal votes: 57,292
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Ottumwa-Kirksville's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Ottumwa-KirksvilleCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 85.2%Hispanic 6.3%Multiracial 2.9%Black 2.5%Asian 2.1%Native Hawaiian 0.7%Native American 0.4%
GroupOttumwa-KirksvilleNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
85.2%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(15)
6.3%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
2.9%4.0%
▶Black / African American(8)
2.5%12.2%
▶Asian(6)
2.1%6.0%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)
0.7%0.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.4%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5)
0.3%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
41.5%(52.8K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -54.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
25.8%62.2%——
Mainline Protestant
7.8%18.8%——
Catholic
5.2%12.4%——
Other
2.3%5.6%——
LDS (Mormon)
1.4%3.3%——
Black Protestant
0.4%1.0%——
Non-religiousPopulation
58.5%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Ottumwa-Kirksville media market? 127,152 residents across 10 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Ottumwa-Kirksville vs National127K residents

25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
127K
local
127KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.04%
local
0.04%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
73.9%
local
73.9%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$63,682
local
$63,682National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.9%
local
14.9%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
24.9%
local
24.9%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
71.3%
local
71.3%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.0 yrs
local
39.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
17.3%
local
17.3%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
20.0%
local
20.0%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
6.4%
local
6.4%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.4%
local
12.4%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
87.6%
local
87.6%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Ottumwa-Kirksville

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.
2024 Turnout
61.3%
vs Previous
-2.4pp
Eligible Non-Voters
36K · 38.7%
Citizen VAP
93,412
History
1988–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is Ottumwa-Kirksville?

Safe RAvg margin: R+35.8 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+1.6
2012
R+8.2
2016
R+32.3
2020
R+34.4
2024
R+40.7
Elasticity
39.0pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
R+23.4
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Ottumwa-Kirksville split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (20/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs GovernorR+40.7R+56.615.9pp
President vs SenateR+40.7R+50.39.6pp
Senate vs GovernorR+50.3R+56.66.3pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 14.4pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Ottumwa-Kirksville sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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