Memphis
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 7.2pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 1.8M residents — 28 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 45.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 6.5% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 42.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 35.4% | 55.6% |
| Black Protestant | 15.0% | 23.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.0% | 9.4% |
| Catholic | 3.9% | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.3% | 5.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Non-religious | 36.4% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+3.8 |
| 2020 | Biden+3.4 |
| 2016 | Clinton+2.4 |
| 2012 | Obama+6.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+8.0 |
| 2004 | Kerry+3.9 |
| 2000 | Gore+6.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+12.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.9 |
Memphis is a media market that has a population of 1,798,678. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+3.8. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.3% | 51.1% | R+3.8 | R+7.2 |
| 2020 | 50.9% | 47.4% | D+3.4 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 49.7% | 47.3% | D+2.4 | R+4.1 |
| 2012 | 52.7% | 46.2% | D+6.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2008 | 53.5% | 45.5% | D+8.0 | D+4.1 |
| 2004 | 51.6% | 47.7% | D+3.9 | R+2.7 |
| 2000 | 52.6% | 46.0% | D+6.6 | R+6.2 |
| 1996 | 53.8% | 41.0% | D+12.9 | D+1.9 |
| 1992 | 52.0% | 41.1% | D+10.9 | D+15.3 |
| 1988 | 47.4% | 51.8% | R+4.4 | D+0.5 |
| 1984 | 47.2% | 52.1% | R+4.9 | R+13.1 |
| 1980 | 52.7% | 44.5% | D+8.2 | R+7.9 |
| 1976 | 57.4% | 41.4% | D+16.0 | D+53.3 |
| 1972 | 30.3% | 67.6% | R+37.3 | R+44.0 |
| 1968 | 33.0% | 26.3% | D+6.7 | D+6.1 |
| 1964 | 50.3% | 49.7% | D+0.6 | R+5.1 |
| 1960 | 50.2% | 44.5% | D+5.7 | R+7.0 |
| 1956 | 53.6% | 40.9% | D+12.7 | R+4.5 |
| 1952 | 58.5% | 41.3% | D+17.2 | R+9.5 |
| 1948 | 43.4% | 16.7% | D+26.7 | — |
What defines Memphis?
Memphis flipped to Republicans in 2024 after voting the other way in 2020. It has a plurality-minority electorate (54% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Counties in Memphis
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | 919K | D+25.4 | 201,759 | 118,917 | 326,497 | 48.3% |
| DeSoto | 191K | R+24.1 | 29,023 | 48,064 | 79,082 | 11.7% |
| Tipton | 62K | R+52.8 | 6,178 | 20,303 | 26,733 | 4.0% |
| Lafayette | 58K | R+21.8 | 8,956 | 14,050 | 23,409 | 3.5% |
| Crittenden | 47K | D+2.3 | 7,362 | 7,028 | 14,681 | 2.2% |
| Fayette | 43K | R+42.4 | 6,720 | 16,756 | 23,696 | 3.5% |
| Mississippi | 39K | R+31.6 | 3,574 | 6,963 | 10,717 | 1.6% |
| Dyer | 37K | R+61.8 | 2,707 | 11,603 | 14,394 | 2.1% |
| Alcorn | 34K | R+68.3 | 2,328 | 12,657 | 15,112 | 2.2% |
| Marshall | 34K | R+7.3 | 6,888 | 7,977 | 14,983 | 2.2% |
| Panola | 33K | R+14.8 | 6,061 | 8,202 | 14,422 | 2.1% |
| Tate | 28K | R+43.8 | 3,555 | 9,185 | 12,861 | 1.9% |
| Mcnairy | 26K | R+68.4 | 1,727 | 9,437 | 11,267 | 1.7% |
| Hardeman | 25K | R+24.1 | 3,527 | 5,793 | 9,399 | 1.4% |
| Lauderdale | 25K | R+37.0 | 2,571 | 5,633 | 8,266 | 1.2% |
| Poinsett | 23K | R+63.5 | 1,235 | 5,731 | 7,079 | 1.0% |
| St. Francis | 22K | D+0.7 | 2,953 | 2,909 | 5,979 | 0.9% |
| Tippah | 22K | R+67.1 | 1,547 | 7,984 | 9,591 | 1.4% |
| Coahoma | 21K | D+39.8 | 4,711 | 2,008 | 6,790 | 1.0% |
| Haywood | 17K | D+0.4 | 3,311 | 3,286 | 6,652 | 1.0% |
| Cross | 17K | R+47.6 | 1,642 | 4,753 | 6,534 | 1.0% |
| Phillips | 15K | D+13.3 | 2,754 | 2,098 | 4,938 | 0.7% |
| Pemiscot | 15K | R+49.1 | 1,331 | 3,917 | 5,270 | 0.8% |
| Crockett | 14K | R+58.7 | 1,196 | 4,674 | 5,921 | 0.9% |
| Tunica | 9K | D+38.9 | 1,837 | 799 | 2,668 | 0.4% |
| Lee | 8K | D+3.5 | 1,270 | 1,181 | 2,520 | 0.4% |
| Benton | 8K | R+31.4 | 1,318 | 2,535 | 3,880 | 0.6% |
| Quitman | 6K | D+30.7 | 1,725 | 902 | 2,677 | 0.4% |
28 countiesTotal votes: 676,018
Ask the Historian
Explore Memphis's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
- Turnout decreased by 5.4 percentage points since the previous presidential election
- Swung 7.2 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Memphis | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 45.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 42.3% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 6.5% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.9% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
63.6%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -53.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.4% | 55.6% | — | — | |
| 15.0% | 23.6% | — | — | |
| 6.0% | 9.4% | — | — | |
| 3.9% | 6.2% | — | — | |
| 3.3% | 5.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.6% | 1.0% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 36.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Memphis media market? 1,798,678 residents across 28 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
1.8M
Share of U.S. population
0.54%
Voting-age population
73.3%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$63,143
Poverty rate
17.8%
College degree
28.1%
Homeownership
61.5%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
37.3 yrs
Age 18–29
15.9%
Age 65+
15.8%
Foreign born
5.3%
Non-English at home
7.7%
English only
92.3%
Turnout in Memphis
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
51.2%
-5.4pp
1,319,243
1988–2024
How competitive is Memphis?
TossupAvg margin: D+0.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+8.0
2012
D+6.5
2016
D+2.4
2020
D+3.4
2024
R+3.8
11.8pp
1
D+3.3
Do voters in Memphis split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Governor | R+3.8 | R+51.1 | 47.4pp |
| Senate vs Governor | R+5.3 | R+51.1 | 45.8pp |
| President vs Senate | R+3.8 | R+5.3 | 1.5pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 22.7pp
Located In
Memphis sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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