Great Falls
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 3.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 172K residents — 13 counties
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 76.1% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 4.1% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 0.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 13.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.2% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 17.2% | 39.8% |
| Catholic | 14.8% | 34.2% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.3% | 14.5% |
| Other | 4.8% | 11.2% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 4.1% | 9.5% |
| Black Protestant | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 56.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+27.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+24.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+25.9 |
| 2012 | Romney+13.6 |
| 2008 | McCain+2.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+20.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+23.5 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+2.4 |
Great Falls is a media market that has a population of 172,152. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+27.7. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 34.5% | 62.2% | R+27.7 | R+3.6 |
| 2020 | 36.6% | 60.7% | R+24.1 | D+1.8 |
| 2016 | 33.2% | 59.1% | R+25.9 | R+12.3 |
| 2012 | 41.7% | 55.3% | R+13.6 | R+11.0 |
| 2008 | 47.3% | 49.9% | R+2.6 | D+18.2 |
| 2004 | 38.6% | 59.3% | R+20.8 | D+2.7 |
| 2000 | 35.5% | 59.0% | R+23.5 | R+21.6 |
| 1996 | 42.0% | 43.9% | R+1.9 | R+4.3 |
| 1992 | 37.5% | 35.1% | D+2.4 | D+8.8 |
| 1988 | 45.9% | 52.3% | R+6.4 | D+16.7 |
| 1984 | 37.9% | 61.0% | R+23.1 | D+4.8 |
| 1980 | 31.5% | 59.3% | R+27.9 | R+23.9 |
| 1976 | 47.1% | 51.0% | R+4.0 | D+14.3 |
| 1972 | 38.2% | 56.5% | R+18.3 | R+15.7 |
| 1968 | 45.2% | 47.8% | R+2.6 | R+26.3 |
| 1964 | 61.7% | 38.0% | D+23.7 | D+17.6 |
| 1960 | 52.9% | 46.9% | D+6.1 | D+11.8 |
| 1956 | 47.2% | 52.8% | R+5.7 | D+7.2 |
| 1952 | 43.2% | 56.2% | R+12.9 | R+37.4 |
| 1948 | 60.3% | 35.9% | D+24.5 | — |
What defines Great Falls?
Great Falls voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2024. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, revealing how its political character has evolved over more than a century.
Constituent Counties
Similar media markets
Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
Tulsa
Small-town rural republican
Sherman-Ada
Small-town rural republican
Billings
Small-town rural republican
Minot-Bismarck-Dickinson (Williston)
Small-town rural republican
Casper-Riverton
Small-town rural republican
Sioux Falls(Mitchell)
Small-town rural republican 3
Rapid City
Small-town rural republican
Myrtle Beach-Florence
Rural Republican
Counties in Great Falls
2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade | 85K | R+22.4 | 14,021 | 22,419 | 37,583 | 47.5% |
| Hill | 16K | R+18.2 | 2,634 | 3,871 | 6,804 | 8.6% |
| Glacier | 14K | D+19.6 | 2,933 | 1,939 | 5,078 | 6.4% |
| Fergus | 12K | R+51.3 | 1,522 | 4,965 | 6,712 | 8.5% |
| Valley | 8K | R+51.1 | 935 | 3,019 | 4,079 | 5.1% |
| Blaine | 7K | R+5.9 | 1,348 | 1,526 | 3,019 | 3.8% |
| Teton | 6K | R+45.0 | 927 | 2,533 | 3,568 | 4.5% |
| Pondera | 6K | R+41.7 | 782 | 1,972 | 2,852 | 3.6% |
| Chouteau | 6K | R+32.2 | 940 | 1,885 | 2,934 | 3.7% |
| Toole | 5K | R+56.5 | 415 | 1,571 | 2,046 | 2.6% |
| Phillips | 4K | R+62.5 | 385 | 1,753 | 2,189 | 2.8% |
| Judith Basin | 2K | R+58.1 | 265 | 1,051 | 1,353 | 1.7% |
| Liberty | 2K | R+54.5 | 214 | 752 | 988 | 1.2% |
13 countiesTotal votes: 79,205
Ask the Historian
Explore Great Falls's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 27.7% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 25.1 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | Great Falls | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 76.1% | 57.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7) | 13.0% | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.2% | 4.0% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 4.1% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 0.8% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.8% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Method notes
Religious Adherents
Population that are religious adherents:
43.3%
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -10.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.2% | 39.8% | — | — | |
| 14.8% | 34.2% | — | — | |
| 6.3% | 14.5% | — | — | |
| 4.8% | 11.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 4.1% | 9.5% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 56.7% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Great Falls media market? 172,152 residents across 13 counties.
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
172K
Share of U.S. population
0.05%
Voting-age population
72.6%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$63,259
Poverty rate
15.8%
College degree
25.7%
Homeownership
68.1%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
39.0 yrs
Age 18–29
14.6%
Age 65+
19.8%
Foreign born
1.9%
Non-English at home
4.8%
English only
95.2%
Turnout in Great Falls
Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
63.3%
-3.3pp
125,029
1988–2024
How competitive is Great Falls?
Safe RAvg margin: R+25.9 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+2.6
2012
R+13.6
2016
R+25.9
2020
R+24.1
2024
R+27.7
25.1pp
0
R+18.8
Do voters in Great Falls split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (0/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+11.3 | R+30.4 | 19.1pp |
| President vs Senate | R+27.7 | R+11.3 | 16.4pp |
| President vs Governor | R+27.7 | R+30.4 | 2.7pp |
Average divergence across office pairs: 18.5pp
Located In
Great Falls sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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